National Housing Federation: Supported housing in England: Estimating need and costs to 2040

The purpose of the Report was to estimate the current and future need for supported housing, assess the costs and inform a long-term housing strategy for government and local authorities in England (including housing for older people) up to 2040.

Key Findings

1. Current Supply (2023)

• 572,891 units of supported housing in England.
• 89% owned by social landlords (housing associations and local authorities).
• 71% for older people; 29% for working-age adults.
• 75% long-term; 25% short-term.

2. Future Need

• 167,329 additional units needed by 2040 to keep pace with population growth.
• Total required: 677,202 units.
• Driven mainly by ageing population (94% of increase).

Hidden demand suggests that the actual need may be higher; up to 1.7 million people may need supported housing by 2040 and an estimated shortfall of 50,000 units already exists.

3. Costs

• Development cost: £33.9 billion by 2040.
• Annual operating cost (2040) –
• Rent & service charges: £7.1 billion.
• 69% funded by Housing Benefit/Universal Credit.
• Support costs: £3.4 billion.
• 8% self-funded by residents (~£280 million/year).

Demand for People with Learning Disabilities, Mental Health Needs, and Autism

• In 2023, 29% of supported housing units were for working-aged adults, including those with learning disabilities, mental health issues, and autism.
• Mental health: Estimated prevalence of 8.2% among adults aged 18–64, with increasing demand linked to financial stress and service access issues1
• Autism: Often included within learning disability statistics; demand is rising due to better diagnosis and longer life expectancy.

 Hidden Demand

An estimated 3.6 million people in England may need support but are not receiving it, including:

• Delayed hospital discharges due to lack of suitable housing.
• Unmet social care needs (e.g., 22% of older adults have unmet needs for daily living).
• Rejected referrals to domestic abuse refuges and substance misuse services.
• People with mental health issues are not in treatment (only 1 in 3 are).

4. Challenges Identified

• Funding gaps: Short-term contracts, insufficient capital grants, rising construction costs.
• Data limitations: Lack of national monitoring on demand and supply.
• Systemic issues: Supported housing sits at the intersection of housing, health, and social care—none of which are fully integrated.
• Inappropriate housing: People with support needs often placed in general needs housing or unsuitable supported housing.

5. Recommendations

National Level

• Develop a long-term, integrated plan for supported housing.
• Invest £33.9 billion to build 167,329 new units by 2040.
• Ensure ring-fenced funding for support services and housing costs.
• Improve data collection on demand, occupancy, and outcomes.

Local Level

• Enable local authorities and Integrated Care Boards to plan and commission supported housing.
• Produce local supported housing strategies based on robust data.